Ukraine

A dam in a Russian-controlled part of southern Ukraine has been "blown up". A feud between the Wagner Group and the Russian military has reportedly turned violent, amid speculation about Ukraine's counteroffensive. Watch aerial footage of the dam damage in the video below.

Tuesday 6 June 2023 12:40, UK

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long been aware of the possibility of an attack on the hydroelectric dam - he even warned the West about it in October.

In a speech to the European Council, the Ukrainian president spoke about the "next terrorist attack which Russia is preparing for at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant".

He added: "According to our information, the aggregates and dam of the Kakhovka HPP were mined by Russian terrorists."

Zelenskyy called on the world to act "quickly and powerfully" to prevent such an attack.

However, seven months later, something has indeed happened at the Nova Kakhovka dam, plunging vast swathes of the landscape underwater.

The amount of water pouring through the breached dam is immense.

Before today the dam had held back the Kakhovka reservoir, a huge artificial lake holding 18.2 cubic kilometres of water.

Now that water has been rushing through the ruins of the Nova Kakhovka dam and wreaking destruction on the surrounding landscape.

The scale of the problem can be seen in these stills, which appear to show large breaches in the structure.

While the exact cause of the damage remains unconfirmed - Ukraine has blamed Russia, and Russia has blamed Ukraine - it is clear that the dam can no longer hold back the vast amounts of water.

The fallout from the dam breach in Ukraine today could have far-reaching consequences, including:

But there have also been warnings of ecological disaster in the coming days.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that "a global ecological disaster is playing out now and thousands of animals and ecosystems will be destroyed in the next few hours".

Meanwhile, a Ukrainian nongovernmental organisation, the World Data Centre for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development, estimated that nearly 100 villages and towns would be flooded.

It also said that the water level would start dropping only after five to seven days.

Nuclear engineers 'should be able to cope'

Meanwhile, the UK's Science Media Centre downplayed any complications with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station.

Professor Philip Thomas, visiting academic professor at the University of Bristol, said: "The nuclear power station is upstream of the Kakhovka dam that has just been blown, and so will not be flooded.

"All six reactors at the power plant have been shut down for over eight months, which means that their requirements for cooling water will be only a tiny fraction of what they needed when they were operating.

"The engineers on site should be able to cope with low water levels in the Kakhovka reservoir. There should not be concern for the safety of the nuclear power station at this time."

Footage posted online appears to show a square in the town of Nova Kakhovka submerged underwater following Tuesday's explosion at a major dam nearby.

The video was posted on Twitter by Iuliia Mendel, a former spokesperson for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and shows the Palace of Culture which sits next to the Dnipro River.

As we reported earlier, Tuesday's breach of the Russian-controlled dam has promptedthe evacuation of people living in the area.

The Russia-installed mayor of the town said it is underwater.

Meanwhile, the Russia-installed Kherson region administration said several more districts are being evacuated after the breach.

Russia controls the eastern bank of the Dnipro, andUkraine the other side.

Leaders in the Baltic states have also called the destruction of a dam a war crime, after Ukraine accused Russia following an explosion earlier today.

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia share a border with Russia and are members of both the European Union and NATO.

'Ukraine must win this war'

Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda called the breach an "unprecedented Russian attack against civilian infrastructure".

He added: "The destruction of a major dam is a crime of war that directly threatens thousands of people.

"Russia must be held accountable for it. And Ukraine must win this war to stay safe!"

'War crime will result in ecocide'

Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna also tweeted: "This war crime will result in ecocide, enormous economic damage and displacement of thousands of people."

"The perpetrators of war crimes must be brought under special tribunal," he said.

'Russia needs to be stopped'

Meanwhile, Edgars Rinkevics, the Latvian foreign minister who will be sworn in as the country's president in July, said: "Russia is a terrorist state and needs to be stopped.

"We must step up the support for Ukraine and bring war criminals to justice."

A top Ukrainian diplomat called Russia a "terrorist state" as he opened his country's case against Moscow at the UN's highest court today.

Hearings were starting in a case over Moscow's backing of pro-Russian separatists - who are blamed for downing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014.

The diplomat, Anton Korynevych, also used his remarks to accuse Russia of blowing up a major dam in southern Ukraine today.

'The actions of a terrorist state'

In his opening remarks, Ukrainian ambassador-at-large Mr Korynevych commented on the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in the southern Kherson region - which burst hours before his speech.

He said: "Russia cannot defeat us on the battlefield, so it targets civilian infrastructure to try to freeze us into submission… Just today Russia blew up a major dam... causing significant civilian evacuations, ecological damages and threatening the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant."

He added that "Russia's actions are the actions of a terrorist state".

Background to court case

Mr Korynevych was addressing judges at the International Court of Justice on Tuesday in a case brought by Kyiv linked to the 2014 annexation of Crimea - and the arming of rebels in eastern Ukraine in the years before Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ukraine wants the court to order Moscow to pay reparations for attacks in the regions, including for the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

The civilian plane was shot down by Russian-backed rebels on 17 July 2014, killing all 298 passengers and crew.

The UK's foreign secretary has called the destruction of the dam in the Russian-controlled part of southern Ukraine today an "abhorrent act".

James Cleverly tweeted: "The destruction of Kakhovka dam is an abhorrent act.

"Intentionally attacking exclusively civilian infrastructure is a war crime.

"The UK stands ready to support Ukraine and those affected by this catastrophe."

Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the dam from the insidein a deliberate war crime.

Russian-installed officials gaveconflicting accounts, with some blaming Ukrainian shelling, and otherssaying the dam had burst on its own due to earlier damage.

Officials from both sides have ordered residents to evacuate.

The EU condemnedthe destruction of the dam as a new example of the "barbaric aggression" by Russiaagainst Ukraine.

EU Commission spokesman Peter Stano said: "This is a new sign of escalation, bringing the horrific andbarbaric nature of Russian aggression against Ukraine tounprecedented levels."

The head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has indicated the Russian army has killed some of his mercenaries.

In what the British Ministry of Defence (MoD) called a feud of "an unprecedented level", Prigozhin said Russian state forces "employed deliberate, lethal force against Wagner units".

Wagner has also likely detained a Russian army brigade commander after an altercation, according to the MoD.

In its latest intelligence update, the ministry said most of Wagner's forces have been withdrawn from Bakhmut. But Russia largely relied on the mercenaries to take the city from Ukraine in recent months.

The UK's MoD also suggested whether or not the Wagner Group continues to follow Russian orders in the coming months could be key to the war, especially as Russian reserves are depleted.

It added there has been a "substantial increase" in fighting in the past 48 hours in several areas on the front "including those which have been relatively quiet for several months".

By Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor

The destruction of Ukraine's giant Nova Kakhovka dam could be the most damaging single event of the war so far.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously warned an attack against the vital structure should be treated in the same way as the use of a weapon of mass destruction.

Kyiv has blamed Russia for blowing up the dam. Russian-installed officials in territory occupied by Russia variously blamed Ukrainian shelling or claimed no attack had taken place.

Images on social media show water from the Dnipro River surging downstream towards the southern region of Kherson.

The authorities in the main city of Kherson, less than 50 miles from the dam, have warned residents in low-lying areas to evacuate to higher ground.

The dam

At 30 metres (98 feet) tall and 3.2 km (2 miles) long, the Nova Kakhovka dam was built in 1956 on the Dnipro River as part of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

It holds a giant reservoir with a volume of water equal to the Great Salt Lake in the US state of Utah.

As well as a crucial source of energy generation, the reservoir also supplies water to the Crimean peninsula, which Russia claims to have annexed in 2014, as well as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which is also under Russian control.

Russian forces took control of the dam at the start of their February 2022 invasion.

However, Ukraine has long feared Moscow may seek to attack the dam to thwart efforts by Ukrainian forces to move against Russian-held territory in the south.

Mr Zelenskyy said last October that Russia had mined the dam when he made the weapons of mass destruction warning.

What is the impact of the destruction?

The most immediate impact is the risk of flooding to many thousands of civilians across huge swathes of territory downstream - both areas under Ukrainian control and under Russian occupation.

Some 22,000 people living across 14 settlements in Ukraine's southern Kherson region are at risk of flooding, Russian installed officials said. They told people to be ready to evacuate.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that up to 80 settlements were at risk of flooding.

The Crimean peninsula - under Russian control since 2014 - will also suffer.

It is dependent on fresh water from the North Crimean Canal, which is supplied by the Dnipro River.

The Russian-backed governor of Crimea said there is a risk that water levels in the canal could fall after the rupture of the dam.

Ukraine previously blocked water supplies to Crimea after Russia's annexation but the flow of water resumed after Russia took control of the dam last year.

The destruction of the dam could have a devastating impact on the land across the south if it devastates a system of irrigation canals.

The nuclear plant

A close eye will be kept on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest, which was also captured by Russia last year. The facility receives its critical cooling water from the reservoir.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog, said on Twitter it was closely monitoring what was happening but that there was "no immediate nuclear safety risk at (the) plant".

Why might Russia target the dam?

Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the dam.

This seems plausible, coming just as Ukrainian forces appear to be in the initial phases of a major counteroffensive against Russian positions in the south and the east.

Rather than concentrate attention on their offensive operation, the Ukrainian government will have to focus on dealing with this disaster.

It could force the evacuation of huge numbers of people, as well as flooding vast areas of land.

Any mass flooding will also surely make military operations in the area much harder.

Ukrainian forces made limited advances north and southwest of Bakhmut yesterday, according to the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) daily report.

President Zelenskyy thanked troops for "moving forward" as officials said they had advanced in three areas on the outskirts of the city.

But the ISW said it had not seen any visual confirmation of Ukrainian advances on Monday.

Claims of progress near Bakhmut

The head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, also said on Monday Ukrainian forces had captured the area of Berkhivka, around 6km north of Bakhmut.

He used it as an opportunity to criticise Russian military forces for withdrawing from a reservoir in Berkhivka on 12 May.

It's thought his comments are part of a continuing feud between the Wagner group and Russia's ministry of defence.

But don't forget it was the Wagner group which took back Bakhmut for Russia - before handing over control to Russian forces.